The Growth Conundrum

BERKELEY – The world faces a major dilemma. While rapid economic growth, such as that realized over the past 50 years, is critical to support development, we now also know that it can have serious adverse consequences, particularly for the environment. How can we balance the imperatives of growth and development with the need to ensure sustainability?

The unprecedented growth of per capita income during the last 20 years has lifted more than one billion people out of extreme poverty. In developing countries, life expectancy has increased by 20 years since the mid-1970s, and the illiteracy rate among adults was almost halved in the last 30 years.

But rapid economic growth has placed enormous pressure on the environment. Moreover, it has been accompanied by rising income inequality, which has now reached historic highs within many countries (though, across countries, such inequality has declined). Given this, one might argue that slower growth would be good for the world.

In that case, the solution would be at hand. According to a new report by the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI), aging populations and declining fertility rates in many parts of the world could dampen global growth considerably over the next 50 years.

Indeed, even if productivity were to expand at the same rapid rate as during the last half-century, global growth would fall by 40%, far below the anemic rate of the last five years. Employment growth is also set to slow significantly. As a result, even with slower population growth, per capita income growth would fall by about 19%.

To be sure, GDP would still triple, and per capita income would double, over the next 50 years. Nonetheless this rate of long-term growth would constitute a sharp break with the six-fold GDP expansion and nearly three-fold increase in per capita income of the last 50 years.

Despite its potential benefits, especially for the environment, the impending growth slowdown carries significant risks. While growth is not an end in itself, it enables the achievement of a broad set of societal goals, including the creation of economic and employment opportunities for millions of vulnerable and poor people and the provision of social goods like education, health care, and pensions.

So how do we ensure that these imperatives are fulfilled, despite demographic and environmental constraints? The first step is to secure economic growth through productivity gains.

The needed acceleration in productivity growth – by 80% to sustain overall GDP growth and by 22% to sustain per capita income growth at the rates of the last half-century – is daunting. But, based on case studies in five economic sectors, the MGI report finds that achieving it, though “extremely challenging,” is possible – and without relying on unforeseeable technological advances.

Three-quarters of the potential pickup in productivity could come from “catch-up” improvements, with countries taking steps – modernizing their retail sectors, consolidating automobile production into a smaller number of larger factories, improving health-care efficiency, and reducing food-processing wastage – that have already proven effective elsewhere. The rest can come from technological, operational, and business innovations – for example, developing new seeds to increase agricultural yields, using new materials (such as carbon-fiber composites) to make cars and airplanes lighter and more resilient, or digitizing medical records.

Another significant growth opportunity lies in boosting the employment and productivity of women. Today, only about half of the world’s working-age women are employed. They earn about three-quarters as much as men in the same occupations, and are over-represented in informal, temporary, and low-productivity jobs
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MGI estimates that increasing women’s labor-force participation rate could contribute almost 60% of potential labor-force growth during the next half-century. Realizing this potential will require efforts by both employers and governments to eliminate discriminatory practices that impede the recruitment, retention, and promotion of women, as well as credit, tax, and family support policies to help workers balance their responsibilities at work and at home.

Meanwhile, in order to mitigate the environmental impact of continued rapid growth, the world must improve its resource efficiency considerably. MGI and others have identified numerous ecologically responsible growth opportunities emanating from the smarter use of limited resources.

Consider improvements in energy efficiency, which could halve projected energy demand between now and 2020. As California – the world’s eighth-largest economy – has demonstrated, strict energy-efficiency standards can actually be good for growth and jobs. Indeed, such policies have kept California’s per capita energy demand constant for the last three decades – even as such demand grew by 50% in the rest of the United States – without compromising growth.

There is a strong business and consumer case for improving resource productivity, as it could lead to substantial cost savings. Fortunately, policies that support this goal are gaining momentum in developed and developing countries alike.

Even if gains in female labor-force participation and resource-efficient productivity growth sustain high rates of economic growth, one key challenge remains: income inequality. In fact, there is no simple relationship between growth and income inequality; after all, inequality has been increasing in both slow-growing developed economies and fast-growing emerging economies.

According to the French economist Thomas Piketty, income inequality rises when the return on capital exceeds economic growth, meaning that, by itself, faster economic growth would reduce inequality. Using a different approach, economists at the International Monetary Fund also find a positive relationship between lower income inequality and faster growth, concluding that policies that redistribute income can foster faster, more sustainable growth.

Growth still matters. As demographic tailwinds turn into headwinds, and environmental challenges become ever more apparent, businesses and governments need to think carefully about how to improve resource efficiency while fostering more inclusive economic growth.

via Project Syndicate – (@LauraDTyson & Woetzel)

By: LAURA TYSON

Laura Tyson, a former chair of the US President’s Council of Economic Advisers, is a professor at the Haas School of Business at the University of California, Berkeley, a senior adviser at the Rock Creek Group, and a member of the World Economic Forum Global Agenda Council on Gender Parity.

JONATHAN WOETZEL
Jonathan Woetzel is a director of the McKinsey Global Institute.

Nigeria school blast kills dozens Many dead and injured after explosion before morning assembly at secondary school in Yobe, north-east Nigeria Share 70 inShare 2 Email Agencies in Kano and Lagos The Guardian, Monday 10 November 2014

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The site of a bomb blast in Gombe, north-eastern Nigeria, on 31 October. Boko Haram militants are likely to be prime suspects in the latest attack. Photograph: Str/EPA

A suicide bomb attack killed 47 people and injured 79 others as students gathered for Monday morning assembly at their school in north-east Nigeria, police have said.

“There was an explosion detonated by a suicide bomber,” national police spokesman Emmanuel Ojukwu said, referring to the attack in Potiskum in Yobe state.

Survivors told the Associated Press that the bomber was disguised in school uniform and appeared to have hidden the explosives in a type of rucksack popular with students.

Soldiers who attended the scene were reportedly chased away by people angry at the military’s inability to halt a five-year Islamic insurgency that has killed thousands and driven hundreds of thousands from their homes.

About 2,000 students had gathered for the weekly assembly at the Government Technical Science college when the explosion tore through the school hall, according to survivors.

“We were waiting for the principal to address us, around 7.30am, when we heard a deafening sound and I was blown off my feet. People started screaming and running, I saw blood all over my body,” 17-year-old student Musa Ibrahim Yahaya said from hospital, where he was being treated for head wounds.

Hospital workers said dozens were being treated including people with serious injuries who may need amputations.

There was no immediate claim of responsibility for the attack, but Boko Haram militants are likely to be the prime suspects.

The group, which wants to create a hardline Islamic state in northern Nigeria, has previously carried out deadly attacks on schools teaching a “western” curriculum.

In February, gunmen killed at least 40 students after throwing explosives into the dormitory of a government boarding school in Buni Yadi, Yobe state.

In July last year, 42 students were killed when Boko Haram attacked dormitories in a gun and bomb attack on a government boarding school in Mamudo village, near Potiskum.

Boko Haram’s most high-profile attack on a school came in April, when fighters kidnapped 276 girls from Chibok in Borno state, north-east Nigeria. More than six months later, 219 of the girls are still being held.

Potiskum, the commercial hub of Yobe state, has been targeted repeatedly by attacks blamed on Boko Haram. Last week, at least 15 people were killed in a suicide bomb attack targeting a Shia religious ceremony in the city.

Yobe is one of three north-eastern states that has been under a state of emergency since May last year to try to quell the bloody insurgency. But violence has continued and Boko Haram has seized at least two dozen towns and villages in recent months, raising doubts about the government’s ability to control the region.

Ebola ‘could be scourge like HIV,’ John Kerry warns the world

Nicholas Watt, Sarah Boseley, Lizzy Davies, Kim Willsher, and Philip Oltermann
Saturday 18 October 2014

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Comfort Swen (left) and her daughter await healthcare workers in Liberia to escort them to an Ebola holding centre, 17 October 2014. Photograph: John Moore/Getty

Britain and the US say inadequate international response to outbreak has allowed it to continue and worsenritain and the US say inadequate international response to outbreak has allowed it to continue and worsen

Britain and the United States have issued stark warnings that the international community will be responsible for a substantial loss of life in west Africa and a greater threat across the world unless the financial and medical response to the Ebola crisis is intensified.

As the World Health Organisation (WHO) admitted mishandling the early stages of the Ebola outbreak in west Africa, US secretary of state John Kerry said a failure to respond could turn Ebola into “a scourge like HIV or polio”.

In some of his strongest remarks since the outbreak of the virus, Kerry criticised the international community for providing only a third of the UN target of $1bn (£620m). Speaking to the Washington diplomatic corps at the state department, Kerry called on world leaders to provide cash, helicopters and treatment centres.

Reflecting growing impatience with the limited response from countries such as Russia and China, he said: “If we don’t adequately address this current outbreak now, then Ebola has the potential to become a scourge like HIV or polio, that we will end up fighting, all of us, for decades. And we shouldn’t kid ourselves. Winning this fight is going to be costly, it is going to take all of our efforts, and it is not risk-free.”

David Cameron wrote to the European council president, Herman Van Rompuy, to call on EU leaders to agree at a summit next week to donate an extra €1bn (£790m) and to despatch 2,000 European clinicians and workers to the region within a month.

In his letter in advance of a European summit in Brussels next week, the UK prime minister wrote: “If we do not significantly step up our collective response now, the loss of life and damage to the political, economic and social fabric of the region will be substantial and the threat posed to our citizens will also grow.”

In addition to the extra €1bn, Cameron wants EU leaders to agree to dispatch at least 2,000 workers to west Africa within the next month, to increase co-ordination of screening at European ports, and to improve coordination of flights to west Africa to fly frontline health staff to the region. Britain believes Germany is starting to respond, though it considers this has been slow.

The interventions by Britain and the US came as:

• Barack Obama named an Ebola “tsar” to take charge of combating the virus in the US and health officials revealed they were monitoring 16 people connected to a nurse who has the virus. The government also asked three biology labs to submit plans for producing the experimental anti-Ebola drug ZMapp;

• GlaxoSmithKline, the pharmaceutical group, said a vaccine it was working on would be “too late for this epidemic”;

• the death toll rose to 4,546 out of 9,191 cases in west Africa.

Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) warned that international pledges were not having any impact on the spread of the virus. Christopher Stokes, who is leading the charity’s response, welcomed pledges of help, but told the BBC they were “not having any significant impact on the epidemic and it won’t now for maybe another month or month and a half”.

Britain and the United States have issued stark warnings that the international community will be responsible for a substantial loss of life in west Africa and a greater threat across the world unless the financial and medical response to the Ebola crisis is intensified.

As the World Health Organisation (WHO) admitted mishandling the early stages of the Ebola outbreak in west Africa, US secretary of state John Kerry said a failure to respond could turn Ebola into “a scourge like HIV or polio”.

In some of his strongest remarks since the outbreak of the virus, Kerry criticised the international community for providing only a third of the UN target of $1bn (£620m). Speaking to the Washington diplomatic corps at the state department, Kerry called on world leaders to provide cash, helicopters and treatment centres.

Reflecting growing impatience with the limited response from countries such as Russia and China, he said: “If we don’t adequately address this current outbreak now, then Ebola has the potential to become a scourge like HIV or polio, that we will end up fighting, all of us, for decades. And we shouldn’t kid ourselves. Winning this fight is going to be costly, it is going to take all of our efforts, and it is not risk-free.”

David Cameron wrote to the European council president, Herman Van Rompuy, to call on EU leaders to agree at a summit next week to donate an extra €1bn (£790m) and to despatch 2,000 European clinicians and workers to the region within a month.

In his letter in advance of a European summit in Brussels next week, the UK prime minister wrote: “If we do not significantly step up our collective response now, the loss of life and damage to the political, economic and social fabric of the region will be substantial and the threat posed to our citizens will also grow.”

In addition to the extra €1bn, Cameron wants EU leaders to agree to dispatch at least 2,000 workers to west Africa within the next month, to increase co-ordination of screening at European ports, and to improve coordination of flights to west Africa to fly frontline health staff to the region. Britain believes Germany is starting to respond, though it considers this has been slow.

The interventions by Britain and the US came as:

• Barack Obama named an Ebola “tsar” to take charge of combating the virus in the US and health officials revealed they were monitoring 16 people connected to a nurse who has the virus. The government also asked three biology labs to submit plans for producing the experimental anti-Ebola drug ZMapp;

• GlaxoSmithKline, the pharmaceutical group, said a vaccine it was working on would be “too late for this epidemic”;

• the death toll rose to 4,546 out of 9,191 cases in west Africa.

Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) warned that international pledges were not having any impact on the spread of the virus. Christopher Stokes, who is leading the charity’s response, welcomed pledges of help, but told the BBC they were “not having any significant impact on the epidemic and it won’t now for maybe another month or month and a half”.

The sense of chaos was highlighted when a WHO draft internal document obtained by the Associated Press accepted there was widespread failure to recognise the risks of the disease in the fragile states of Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone. “Nearly everyone involved in the outbreak response failed to see some fairly plain writing on the wall.” Experts should have realised that the conventional way of containing an Ebola outbreak would not work in a region with porous borders and broken health systems, the document said.

The warnings came after Ban Ki-moon, the UN secretary general, chided the international community because only $100,000 had been paid into his $1bn trust fund to fight Ebola. A further $20m has been pledged but not received. A wider UN appeal has received $376m, about 38% of the amount the UN is seeking to raise for that appeal.

Kofi Annan, a former UN secretary general, said he was “bitterly disappointed” with the response of the international community, which would have been different if the crisis had erupted in the west. Annan told BBC Newsnight: “If the crisis had hit some other region it probably would have been handled very differently. In fact, when you look at the evolution of the crisis, the international community really woke up when the disease got to America and Europe.”

Cameron made clear his impatience with the slow response of fellow EU leaders in his letter to Van Rompuy which is designed to encourage EU leaders to “wake up” to the crisis, in the words of the UK’s international development secretary Justine Greening.

In the letter to Van Rompuy, Cameron wrote: “The Ebola outbreak in west Africa is an issue that requires a substantial global response. The rapid spread of the disease and recent cases outside the west African region demonstrate the magnitude of the task at hand. The WHO forecast 20,000 cases in west Africa by November 2014.

“I believe that much more must be done. The European Council next week provides us with the opportunity to commit to an ambitious package of support to help reduce the rate of transmission in west Africa, to reduce the risk of transmission within Europe, and to pledge long-term support to assist with recovery, resilience and stability in the region. By coordinating our approach, I believe the EU and its member states can maximise the effectiveness of our response.”

Britain believes itself and the US have led the world response to the Ebola crisis. Britain has pledged more than £125m in aid to Sierra Leone because of its historic ties to its former west African colony. Britain is providing more than 700 treatment beds across the country, while 750 troops are to be deployed there.

The US and France are focusing on Liberia and Guinea because of their own historic ties to the countries.

The prime minister’s pointed remarks are also aimed at China and Russia which are seen to have failed to rise to the occasion. But Xiaoyan Jiang, spokeswoman for the Chinese mission to the EU, defended China’s contributions, saying that prime minister Li Kegiang had pledged another 100 million yuan (£10.1m) at the ASEM summit in Milan.

That figure came on top of the 234m yuan (£23.7m) already spent by Beijing on emergency assistance in Sierra Leone, Liberia and Guinea, she added. China had also sent some 200 medical staff to the three countries, and the plan was for them to “help train more than 10,000 medical personnel” on the ground.

“I can assure you China has done a lot. We have provided a lot of assistance to the African countries,” she said. Russian officials on Thursday said the government had earmarked £11.9 million to fight the spread of the Ebola virus in west Africa. Russia has also deployed a team of health workers to Guinea to help fight the epidemic, chief sanitation doctor Anna Popova said during a meeting with the prime minister Dmitry Medvedev on Friday.

French aid to Guinea adds up to more than €70m. Of this, half is being spent in Guinea and on preventative measures in neighbouring countries, including Ivory Coast.

France is setting up an Ebola treatment centre in Guinea operated by the Red Cross and Médecins Sans Frontières, and a Pastor Institute in Conakry to train Guinean biologists in collaboration with the Pastor Institutes in Dakar and Paris.

France is also beefing up laboratories in seven west African countries, including Guinea. The other half has been given to internationally coordinated measures, including the European Commission, the World Bank and the African Development Bank.

The German government has so far promised to support the aid effort in west Africa with a total of €102m. After originally promising to spend €17m, the government announced on Thursday that it would allocate a further €85m to fight Ebola.

“What we are doing to help in west Africa is necessary help for the people there, but also effective protection for the people of Europe”, said health minister Herman Gröhe.

Of the additional €85m, €50m will be assigned to the development ministry, while €35m will go to the German foreign office.

via The Guardian

In a Changing Climate, We Can’t Do Conservation as Usual | October 17, 2014

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By Valerie Hickey and Habiba Gitay

At the 12th Conference of the Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity happening right now in Korea, there has been a lot of talk about adaptation. Most importantly, how can nature help countries and communities adapt to climate change?

Ecosystem-based adaptation (EBA), or using nature’s own defense characteristics to reduce the vulnerability of people and capital, is an essential component of climate-resilient development. EBA isn’t about how we can protect nature. It’s about how nature – through the ecosystem services that constitute EBA, be it flood protection, water provision during droughts, or wave energy attenuation, among other things – can protect people and their capital.

We already know that we can’t eradicate extreme poverty without investing in nature because of the safety net she provides to families in the stubborn pockets of poverty at the rural frontier. Nor can we truly share prosperity with the bottom 40 percent unless we help them reap the benefits of what is often the only capital they have access to – natural capital. And now, climate change has given us another truism: We can’t eradicate extreme poverty or protect the development gains of the bottom 40 percent in the face of climate change, without investing in nature in a different way. And this is the first lesson that we are learning about EBA – it is not conservation as usual.

The success of EBA must be measured in how effectively it has enhanced the resilience of communities and their capital assets. It is about nature helping communities sustain their hard-fought economic gains and climate-proofing future development wins. This is what our investments in EBA through the Pilot Program on Climate Resilience are doing in Samoa and Zambia – we are using EBA to build a protective shell around communities that are vulnerable to coastal erosion, floods, and the loss of scarce freshwater resources. Yes, EBA delivers biodiversity benefits; but first and foremost, it must deliver real and timely benefits for vulnerable people and communities who rely on natural capital.

EBA is not a new idea. In many ways it is the archetype of the triple bottom line in action. A

First and foremost, it provides vulnerable families and communities protection from the vicissitudes and cruelties of a world that is experiencing a rapidly changing climate and a multitude of climate extremes. In a world where most of the poor live in rural areas, and live in dispersed, often remote communities, we know that other types of adaptation measures and infrastructure may never reach them. Islands simply don’t have the resources to ring-fence their entire sovereignty with high concrete sea-walls. Water-stressed countries don’t have the resources to channelize their scarce freshwater resources to support all small-holder agriculture. EBA is a cost-effective way to protect people against climate change, which reduces fiscal pressures on governments while accruing economic and environmental co-benefits.

This is the second lesson of EBA: While hard infrastructure depreciates over time, the benefits of nature-based approaches accrue value. Mangrove forests dampen wave energy, delivering adaptation benefits to coastal and island communities during storms. But over time they also provide nursery grounds for many fish species and critical habitat for marine biodiversity, allowing communities and countries to reap the food security, economic benefits and jobs from improving artisanal and industrial fishing.

But EBA is not a cure-all. While we know a lot about how ecosystems function, we don’t know enough about how they provide ecosystem services, including those that are critical to climate resilient development. Under what conditions will EBA work best? What are the ecological tipping points beyond which ecosystems stop functioning and helping people adapt to climate change? As we learn more about how to optimize EBA, we must embed EBA approaches within broader development strategies. We must employ multi-stakeholder and multi-sectoral approaches at multiple scales across time and space. And most importantly, we must interweave traditional and indigenous knowledge about local ecosystems and how they work into development decisions. This is the third lesson about EBA: Since we don’t know enough about how they work, we must apply them only with the informed and active participation of those communities and countries we are asking to trust in them.

We are investing in EBA, and the delegates at the COP are discussing EBA, because it must be part of our adaptive response to climate change. This is the fourth lesson of EBA: It can and must co-exist with other approaches to adaptation to give countries and communities every opportunity to confront a world that is experiencing climate change. Each approach to adaptation strengthens the other. Greening hard infrastructure will make it last longer and go further. Engineering green infrastructure will make it more effective and help us optimize the delivery of adaptation benefits. In a rapidly changing world where the rural poor are heavily dispersed and countries and communities have limited resources, a full adaptation toolbox that includes EBA is the surest salve to reduce vulnerability and enhance resiliency.

BY VALERIE HICKEY, CO-AUTHORS: HABIBA GITAY

What governments can learn from Sierra Leone’s missing textbooks | By Shwetlena Sabarwal and David Evans | Sep 17 2014

Why is improving education so hard? The case of the missing textbooks

Why is improving education so hard? The case of the missing textbooks

Public programmes are designed on assumptions – nice, tidy, convenient assumptions. Then they hit the real world and very little goes as planned. The culprit, some philosophically inclined would argue, is human behaviour. After all, human beings are impossible to predict. They can react in ways entirely unexpected and fairly baffling – until you dig deeper.

We found this happening in one of the most commonplace and straightforward of public programmes: textbook provision to schools. In 2008, the Government of Sierra Leone implemented a scheme that delivered textbooks to primary schools: one core set of textbooks for each student. The government was interested in establishing the relationship between textbook provision and learning outcomes, so implementation was done using a randomized trial. The school sample was randomly divided into a treatment group (books) and a control group (no books).

Straightforward, right?

The first puzzle came when we found no impact on student performance. This was disappointing but not entirely unexpected. At least one other study, in Kenya, found similar results (at least for most students).

What was more odd, at least to the researchers, was what had happened to the books. In many treatment schools, textbooks had not been distributed to students; instead they were being stored on school premises. On our follow-up visits we found storage rooms filled with textbooks, while in classrooms students were still sharing, three or four children to a textbook. What’s more, students in treatment schools were not being allowed to take textbooks home.

What were the headteachers thinking, keeping textbooks from students who clearly needed them? Why did they let them gather dust? We explored several theories and carefully analyzed the correlates of book storage. We asked teachers if they thought the books were useful; they did. We asked students if they already had books at home; they didn’t. It turns out that headteachers who had high uncertainty about government transfers of textbooks were significantly more likely to store them: We measured this uncertainty by whether or not the headteacher knew how many textbooks were allocated to the school the previous year by the government.

Once we took this underlying uncertainty into account, the storing behaviour started to make sense. Think of consumption theory: if there is uncertainty about future transfers then current transfers are seen as a one-time (or transitory) shock. If this is the case, the impact of current transfers on current consumption (defined as intensive use of textbooks by students) will be limited. This is because when there is uncertainty, headteachers have incentives to store part of the current transfers in order to smooth consumption over time, particularly for things, such as textbooks, that depreciate quickly when used. Remember the permanent income hypothesis? This is a permanent public input hypothesis.

Taking uncertainty into explicit consideration makes the seemingly irrational, rational. Clearly, headteachers in this context are acting as forward-thinking agents who – in the classic spirit of homo-economicus – are deciding how to respond to the public programme based on their resources, constraints and expectations.

And these results illustrate what this decision-making looks like when prevailing expectations around government largess and reliability are bleak. And why wouldn’t they be bleak? Our survey data shows that in 2009, 17% of headteachers and 36% of classroom teachers reported not receiving their full pay in the past year. In Zambia, the unpredictability of government transfers to line ministries was well documented a decade ago. Anecdotal evidence tells us this is widespread.

This smoothing behaviour isn’t unique to textbooks. In a project providing grants to schools in Gambia, schools “were directed to use the grant towards some aspect of the school development that relates directly to teaching and learning”. Yet a quarter of schools reported that their biggest expenditure was on infrastructure (i.e. durable inputs rather than fast-depreciating learning materials).

Is this ill-informed decision-making, or are school committees trying to convert the books into goods that can be consumed well into the future?

When programme goals are subverted by beneficiaries (or intermediate agents, as in this case), it is common to blame low capacity, myopic decision-making, lack of information, human error, corruption or increasingly (and more charitably) the poverty-induced burden on mental bandwidth. But what we find here is rational behaviour.

Our modest argument is that public provision of inputs that depreciate quickly when used, such as textbooks, will be fully consumed only if agents have expectations of replenishment. Hence, for public programmes that are designed as recurring transfers, there is a need to establish a reputation of consistent delivery and to reliably communicate the timing of the next transfer. Otherwise, uncertainty can easily wreak havoc on the nice, tidy and convenient assumptions underlying the programme design.

Published in collaboration with the World Bank Blog.

Author: Shwetlena Sabarwal is an economist at the Education Global Practice of the World Bank. David Evans is a senior economist in the Chief Economist’s Office for the Africa Region of the World Bank.

Image: Malian pupils study during a French language class during a French language lesson in Mali’s capital Bamako. REUTERS/Finbarr O’Reilly.

No Risky Chances: The conversation that matters most | By Atul Gawande

Being Mortal: Medicine and What Matters in the End

Being Mortal: Medicine and What Matters in the End

I learned about a lot of things in medical school, but mortality wasn’t one of them.

Although I was given a dry, leathery corpse to dissect in anatomy class in my first term, our textbooks contained almost nothing about aging or frailty or dying. The purpose of medical schooling was to teach how to save lives, not how to tend to their demise.

I had never seen anyone die before I became a doctor, and when I did, it came as a shock. I’d seen multiple family members—my wife, my parents, and my children—go through serious, life-threatening illnesses, but medicine had always pulled them through. I knew theoretically that my patients could die, of course, but every actual instance seemed like a violation, as if the rules I thought we were playing by were broken.

Dying and death confront every new doctor and nurse. The first times, some cry. Some shut down. Some hardly notice. When I saw my first deaths, I was too guarded to weep. But I had recurring nightmares in which I’d find my patients’ corpses in my house—even in my bed.

I felt as if I’d failed. But death, of course, is not a failure. Death is normal. Death may be the enemy, but it is also the natural order of things. I knew these truths abstractly, but I didn’t know them concretely—that they could be truths not just for everyone but also for this person right in front of me, for this person I was responsible for.

You don’t have to spend much time with the elderly or those with terminal illness to see how often medicine fails the people it is supposed to help. The waning days of our lives are given over to treatments that addle our brains and sap our bodies for a sliver’s chance of benefit. These days are spent in institutions—nursing homes and intensive-care units—where regimented, anonymous routines cut us off from all the things that matter to us in life.

As recently as 1945, most deaths occurred in the home. By the 1980s, just 17 percent did. Lacking a coherent view of how people might live successfully all the way to the very end, we have allowed our fates to be controlled by medicine, technology, and strangers.

But not all of us have. That takes, however, at least two kinds of courage. The first is the courage to confront the reality of mortality—the courage to seek out the truth of what is to be feared and what is to be hoped when one is seriously ill. Such courage is difficult enough, but even more daunting is the second kind of courage—the courage to act on the truth we find.

A few years ago, I got a late night page: Jewel Douglass, a 72-year-old patient of mine receiving chemotherapy for metastatic ovarian cancer, was back in the hospital, unable to hold food down. For a week, her symptoms had mounted: They started with bloating, became waves of crampy abdominal pain, then nausea and vomiting.

Her oncologist sent her to the hospital. A scan showed that, despite treatment, her ovarian cancer had multiplied, grown, and partly obstructed her intestine. Her abdomen had also filled with fluid. The deposits of tumor had stuffed up her lymphatic system, which serves as a kind of storm drain for the lubricating fluids that the body’s internal linings secrete. When the system is blocked, the fluid has nowhere to go. The belly fills up like a rubber ball until you feel as if you will burst.

But walking into Douglass’ hospital room, I’d never have known she was so sick if I hadn’t seen the scan. “Well, look who’s here!” she said, as if I’d just arrived at a cocktail party. “How are you, doctor?”

“I think I’m supposed to ask you that,” I said.

She smiled brightly and pointed around the room. “This is my husband, Arthur, whom you know, and my son, Brett.” She got me grinning. Here it was, 11 at night, she couldn’t hold down an ounce of water, and she still had her lipstick on, her silver hair was brushed straight, and she was insisting on making introductions.

Her oncologist and I had a menu of options. A range of alternative chemotherapy regimens could be tried to shrink the tumor burden, and I had a few surgical options too. I wouldn’t be able to remove the intestinal blockage, but I might be able to bypass it, I told her. Or I could give her an ileostomy, disconnecting the bowel above the blockage and bringing it through the skin to empty into a bag. I would also put in a couple of drainage catheters—permanent spigots that could be opened to release the fluids from her blocked-up drainage ducts or intestines when necessary. Surgery risked serious complications—wound breakdown, leakage of bowel into her abdomen, infections—but it was the only way she might regain her ability to eat.

I also told her that we did not have to do either chemo or surgery. We could provide medications to control her pain and nausea and arrange for hospice care at home.

This is the moment when I would normally have reviewed the pros and cons. But we are only gradually learning in the medical profession that this is not what we need to do. The options overwhelmed her. They all sounded terrifying. So I stepped back and asked her a few questions I learned from hospice and palliative care physicians, hoping to better help both of us know what to do: What were her biggest fears and concerns? What goals were most important to her? What trade-offs was she willing to make?

Not all can answer such questions, but she did. She said she wanted to be without pain, nausea, or vomiting. She wanted to eat. Most of all, she wanted to get back on her feet. Her biggest fear was that she wouldn’t be able to return home and be with the people she loved.

I asked what sacrifices she was willing to endure now for the possibility of more time later. “Not a lot,” she said. Uppermost in her mind was a wedding that weekend that she was desperate not to miss. “Arthur’s brother is marrying my best friend,” she said. She’d set them up on their first date. The wedding was just two days away. She was supposed to be a bridesmaid. She was willing to do anything to make it, she said.

Suddenly, with just a few simple questions, I had some guidance about her priorities. So we made a plan to see if we could meet them. With a long needle, we tapped a liter of tea-colored fluid from her abdomen, which made her feel at least temporarily better. We gave her medication to control her nausea. We discharged her with instructions to drink nothing thicker than apple juice and to return to see me after the wedding.

She didn’t make it. She came back to the hospital that same night. Just the car ride, with its swaying and bumps, made her vomit, and things only got worse at home.

We agreed that surgery was the best course now and scheduled it for the next day. I would focus on restoring her ability to eat and putting drainage tubes in. Afterward, she could decide if she wanted more chemotherapy or to go on hospice.

She was as clear as I’ve seen anyone be about her goals, but she was still in doubt. The following morning, she canceled the operation. “I’m afraid,” she said. She’d tossed all night, imagining the pain, the tubes, the horrors of possible complications. “I don’t want to take risky chances,” she said.

Her difficulty wasn’t lack of courage to act in the face of risks; it was sorting out how to think about them. Her greatest fear was of suffering, she said. Couldn’t the operation make it worse rather than better?

It could, I said. Surgery offered her the possibility of being able to eat again and a very good likelihood of controlling her nausea, but it carried substantial risk of giving her only pain without improvement or adding new miseries. She had, I estimated, a 75 percent chance that surgery would make her future better, at least for a little while, and a 25 percent chance it’d make it worse.

The brain gives us two ways to evaluate experiences like suffering—how we apprehend such experiences in the moment and how we look at them afterward. People seem to have two different selves—an experiencing self who endures every moment equally and a remembering self who, as the Nobel Prize–winning researcher Daniel Kahneman has shown, gives almost all the weight of judgment afterward to just two points in time: the worst moment of an ordeal and the last moment of it. The remembering self and the experiencing self can come to radically different opinions about the same experience—so which one should we listen to?

This, at bottom, was Jewel Douglass’ torment. Should she heed her remembering self—or, in this case, anticipating self—which was focused on the worst things she might endure? Or should she listen to her experiencing self, which would likely endure a lower average amount of suffering in the days to come if she underwent surgery rather than just going home—and might even get to eat again for a while?

In the end, a person doesn’t view his life as merely the average of its moments—which, after all, is mostly nothing much, plus some sleep. Life is meaningful because it is a story, and a story’s arc is determined by the moments when something happens. Unlike your experiencing self, which is absorbed in the moment, your remembering self is attempting to recognize not only the peaks of joy and valleys of misery but also how the story works out as a whole. That is profoundly affected by how things ultimately turn out. Football fans will let a few flubbed minutes at the end of a game ruin three hours of bliss—because a football game is a story, and in stories, endings matter.

Jewel Douglass didn’t know if she was willing to face the suffering that surgery might inflict and feared being left worse off. “I don’t want to take risky chances,” she said. She didn’t want to take a high-stakes gamble on how her story would end. Suddenly I realized, she was telling me everything I needed to know.

We should go to surgery, I told her, but with the directions she’d just spelled out—to do what I could to enable her to return home to her family while not taking “risky chances.” I’d put in a small laparoscope. I’d look around. And I’d attempt to unblock her intestine only if I saw that I could do it fairly easily. If it looked risky, I’d just put in tubes to drain her backed-up pipes. I’d aim for what might sound like a contradiction in terms: a palliative operation—an operation whose overriding priority was to do only what was likely to make her feel immediately better.

She remained quiet, thinking.

Her daughter took her hand. “We should do this, Mom,” she said.

“OK,” Douglass said. “But no risky chances.”

When she was under anesthesia, I made a half-inch incision above her belly button. I slipped my gloved finger inside to feel for space to insert the fiberoptic scope. But a hard loop of tumor-caked bowel blocked entry. I wasn’t even going to be able to put in a camera.

I had the resident take the knife and extend the incision upward until it was large enough to see in directly and get a hand inside. There were too many tumors to do anything to help her eat again, and now we were risking creating holes we’d never be able to repair. Leakage inside the abdomen would be a calamity. So we stopped.

No risky chances. We shifted focus and put in two long, plastic drainage tubes. One we inserted directly into her stomach to empty the contents backed up there; the other we laid in the open abdominal cavity to empty the fluid outside her gut. Then we closed up, and we were done.

I told her family we hadn’t been able to help her eat again, and when Douglass woke up, I told her too. Her daughter wept. Her husband thanked us for trying. Douglass tried to put a brave face on it. “I was never obsessed with food anyway,” she said.

The tubes relieved her nausea and abdominal pain greatly—“90 percent,” she said. The nurses taught her how to open the gastric tube into a bag when she felt sick and the abdominal tube when her belly felt too tight. We told her she could drink whatever she wanted and even eat soft food for the taste. Three days after surgery, she went home with hospice care to look after her.

Before she left, her oncologist and oncology nurse practitioner saw her. Douglass asked them how long they thought she had. “They both filled up with tears,” she told me. “It was kind of my answer.”

A few days later, she and her family allowed me to stop by her home after work. She answered the door, wearing a robe because of the tubes, for which she apologized. We sat in her living room, and I asked how she was doing.

OK, she said. “I think I have a measure that I’m slip, slip, slipping,” but she had been seeing old friends and relatives all day, and she loved it. She was taking just Tylenol for pain. Narcotics made her drowsy and weak, and that interfered with seeing people.

She said she didn’t like all the contraptions sticking out of her. But the first time she found that just opening a tube could take away her nausea, she said, “I looked at the tube and said, ‘Thank you for being there.’ ”

Mostly, we talked about good memories. She was at peace with God, she said. I left feeling that, at least this once, we had done it right. Douglass’ story was not ending the way she ever envisioned, but it was nonetheless ending with her being able to make the choices that meant the most to her.

Two weeks later, her daughter Susan sent me a note. “Mom died on Friday morning. She drifted quietly to sleep and took her last breath. It was very peaceful. My dad was alone by her side with the rest of us in the living room. This was such a perfect ending and in keeping with the relationship they shared.”

Excerpted from Being Mortal: Medicine and What Matters in the End, by Atul Gawande, published on Tuesday by Macmillan.

Lacking a coherent view of how people might live successfully all the way to the very end, we have allowed our fates to be controlled by medicine, technology, and strangers.
Photo by Julio de la Higuera Rodrigo/Thinkstock

Fighting Ebola from the grassroots | By David Norman and Saran Kaba Jones | Oct 9 2014

As a global community, our ability to respond to the Ebola crisis gripping West Africa and to future crises will depend on how much we effectively learn from past interventions, and how best we adapt our practices to improve on coordination, mobilization, impact and long-term outcomes.

When responding to crises and disasters of this magnitude, we can benefit tremendously from local, grassroots organizations and their ability to operate in complex environments, to aid in more timely assessments, and to quickly disseminate information and critical services in the wake of a global crisis. Due to the very nature of their proximity to a potential disaster, community-based organizations become the de facto first responders, witnessing the situation as it begins to emerge. Their knowledge on the ground can play a critical role in assessing the severity of the problem and more accurately projecting its impact.

The first cases of Ebola in West Africa were reported back in September of 2013 and went through a lull before finally resurfacing in early 2014. We can ask ourselves what if, during that period, we had made use of on-the-ground reports by local organizations? Could we have come to learn earlier what we now know about the disease? Would epidemiologists have been able to better predict the capacity of health systems in the region to cope with this new Ebola virus? Could local groups have been able to warn others that the lack of local containment of the disease could pose a serious threat to attempts at intervention?

Unfortunately, as has happened far too often in the past, by the time the world acknowledged the potential consequences of the current epidemic, it was already too late to avoid a completely overwhelmed and unprepared response lagging far behind the spread of the disease.

However, even at the current phase (with a recent CDC estimate suggesting that the virus could infect anywhere from 500,000 to 1.4 million people across the region over the coming months), identifying and empowering local groups as the foundation of intervention could have a significant impact on efforts to contain the spread of the Ebola virus.

Organisations with strong local ties have long understood the importance of engaging with communities in a meaningful, equitable way. Liberians teaching Liberians. Guineans treating Guineans. Sierra Leoneans empowering Sierra Leoneans. In the case of our organisation, FACE Africa, our track record of community engagement in Rivercess County, Liberia allowed us to launch an Ebola awareness campaign far more quickly than a major international player would have been able to. The effectiveness of our campaign was enhanced by the local ties and level of deep-rooted trust we already had within communities. An international team parachuted in would likely not have received the same level of receptiveness from local communities (indeed, there have been numerous cases where health workers and response teams have been met with outright hostility).

Engagement is the pathway to empowerment and when communities are empowered to take control of a situation for themselves, you see meaningful change. They may not have all the expertise, but they have the ability to learn, take charge and even put in place their own solutions. Ian Smillie in the book Patronage or Partnership states that, “supporting the work and strengthening the capacity of local organizations can not only be instrumental in dealing with the situation at hand, but also increase resilience to future humanitarian emergencies. Sending in international emergency teams can help, but is not enough. It is important for the international response to move from a culture of patronage to a culture of partnership.”

We only have to look at the catastrophic 7.0 magnitude earthquake that devastated Haiti in 2010 to understand the importance of local response and long-term planning. As the world’s attention was focused on Haiti after the earthquake, billions of dollars of emergency relief flooded into the country from international donors, supplies were mobilized and doctors and nurses were parachuted in to perform lifesaving medical procedures and care. UN soldiers were deployed to coordinate efforts and governments pledged billions to reconstruct the country so that it was “stronger and more prosperous than ever before”. Four years on, and Haiti is still reeling with nearly a million homeless, the worst cholera outbreak in recent history and an insecure future.

We cannot allow the mistakes in Haiti to happen in Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea. As the world rushes in to help eradicate Ebola in West Africa, now is the time to start thinking beyond the current crisis. Now is the time to focus on ways to sustain our efforts and build infrastructure that will last long after the current crisis has subsided. Because in strengthening the infrastructure and capacity of these countries well into the future, we are not only limiting a potential recurrence, but we are tackling the myriad of other health problems from malaria, to diarrhea, to cholera and typhoid that continue to kill far more people every day.

But any efforts at sustainable development cannot be achieved in the absence of local organisations and community groups. These groups must be at the forefront and lead any long-term development efforts. They must be recognized and supported because they represent the long-term health and strength of African communities; they have been on the ground, are currently on the ground and will still be there when everyone else has left.

Authors: Saran Kaba Jones is the Founder & CEO of FACE Africa and a World Economic Forum Young Global Leader. David Norman is the Business Development Officer at FACE Africa.

Image: A health worker checks the temperature of a man at a roadside health checkpoint outside Ganta October 7, 2014. REUTERS/Daniel Flynn

How your life changes when you win a Nobel prize | October 2014 | by Elizabeth Landau

What happens after you scoop the ultimate accolade in science? Six past winners recall the impact of receiving a Nobel prize

Brian Schmidt, 2011, physics

“More than anything, the prize has given me a voice that I can use on behalf of science. Whereas before I could, and I think did, say sensible things, as a Nobel laureate my views are translated into public talks on radio, op-eds, and meetings with business people, policy-makers, and politicians. I try to use this voice responsibly. One of the pitfalls of being a Nobel winner is that our voices are too loud when it comes to providing personal opinion – and in this respect, I need to be far more careful than I used to be about what I say and what I write.”

Walter Gilbert, 1980, chemistry

“Winning is a great moment because it’s an affirmation by fellow scientists. I tried not to let it influence my life terribly. You can find yourself spending years travelling and talking right after winning. I tried not to do that. It probably changed my life in the sense that it gave me the confidence to leave the university I was at and run a company [Biogen].”

Oliver Williamson, 2009, economic sciences

“Although the prize has had a mixed effect, the net effect has been very positive. Prize or not, my academic life had been very satisfying. The pleasure of the prize – to me, my family, old friends, my students and colleagues – has nonetheless been very real. The downside is that there have been endless requests. Although many of these have been satisfying, they have taken up a lot of time.”

Frank Wilczek, 2004, physics

“I get more invitations and opportunities. There are great parties to go to. But mostly it’s given me a bigger perspective to think about history in a different way, the history of physics, having been part of it, knowing that in a very concrete way it’s done by actual people with laws and limitations. It’s given me a different perspective on what the whole enterprise is. I wrote a book for the public in the immediate aftermath of winning and had a hard time doing anything else. Now I’m writing another book which gives that bigger perspective of what the whole enterprise is all about and how it fits into the human endeavour. I don’t think I would have conceived of doing such a thing before the prize, and the publishers wouldn’t have been as interested.”

John Walker, 1997, chemistry

“One of the things I have enjoyed is meeting the Nobel literature laureates. I had a long debate with Günter Grass on one occasion about the value of science in society. We agreed to differ at the end of it. I also met and got to know somewhat Seamus Heaney, the poet, and found him a very civilised man. And then of course you get to meet politicians and other heads of state and so forth. Meeting people one would not have met – that’s the coolest and most fulfilling part of being a laureate.”

Martin Chalfie, 2008, chemistry

“It has meant that I’ve been much more of a participant in public lectures, for schools, for undergraduates, and high school students and even elementary school students. I am the past president of the Society for Developmental Biology, and maybe the Nobel had something to do with that. I’ve been able to participate in a more rigorous way in the American Society for Cell Biology and the Genetics Society of America. I’ve been able to participate more because of the fame of the award. That’s been a very nice perk – to be asked to take part and to be active in these societies that have been good and supportive of me over the years. It’s a way of giving back.”

New Scientist

Tweet of the day: Malala | October 11, 2014

Malala Yousafzai, left, and Kailash Satyarthi won the 2014 Nobel Peace Prize. Reuters

Malala Yousafzai, left, and Kailash Satyarthi won the 2014 Nobel Peace Prize. Reuters

The Norwegian Nobel Committee awarded the 2014 peace prize on Friday to Malala Yousafzai of Pakistan and Kailash Satyarthi of India, joining a teenage Pakistani known around the world with an Indian veteran of campaigns to end child labor and free children from trafficking.

People across the world reacted differently to this announcement including Malala.
She tweeted: Malala Yousafzai (@Official_Malala) October 10, 2014
Thank You all Support And Love…! #Nobelpeaceprize #StayBless

Pakistan’s prime minister, Nawaz Sharif, reacted to the award by describing Malala as the “pride of Pakistan.”

This was one of the tweets from Umair Haque who was responding to some tweets that were against the announcement.

@umairh: Dear everyone. If #Malala can get shot in the head, live, win Nobel Peace Prize & STILL have haters..then you probably will too.

“It’s an honor to all those children still suffering in slavery, bonded labor and trafficking,” Satyarthi told CNN-IBN TV after he learned of the award, Reuters reported.

60-year-old Kailash Satyarthi, the other joint winner of the Peace Prize, is an Indian children’s rights advocate.

He has actively campaigned against the use of child labor and in 1998 initiated an annual global march against the practice.